Mobile app market predictions for 2025 | Adjust

Summary

The article, authored by Tiahn Wetzler at Adjust, presents five core predictions for the mobile app market in 2025, each with direct implications for ad ops decision-makers.

1. **AI/ML Maturation**: AI and machine learning will transition from experimental to essential tools, with widespread adoption expected. Andrey Kazakov, CEO of Adjust, notes that 2025 will focus on scaling these models to achieve better precision and ROI. Ad ops should invest in AI-driven tools for campaign optimization and predictive analytics.

2. **Consumer-Driven Data Control**: Egor Lukomsky, CTO of Adjust, highlights that privacy regulations like the EU's DMA will push marketers to adopt multiple measurement frameworks (e.g., predictive tools, incrementality analysis). Ad ops must diversify their measurement approaches to comply with varying regional laws while maintaining campaign effectiveness.

3. **Beyond GenAI**: While GenAI offers creative benefits, it cannot solve the measurement challenge. Lukomsky stresses that ML models using alternative data points will become critical for understanding user behavior in a privacy-compliant manner. Ad ops should experiment with ML-based attribution models to prove ROI.

4. **Alternative App Stores**: New distribution channels (e.g., iOS alternative stores, web-based storefronts) will scale in 2025 due to regulations like DMA. This opens opportunities for direct sales and reduced reliance on traditional stores. Ad ops should plan for multi-channel user acquisition strategies.

5. **M&A Shaping the Market**: Andrey Kazakov predicts increased consolidation, with US firms acquiring regional apps in Europe to restart growth. Counter to super app trends, brands will remain distinct under parent companies. Ad ops should monitor M&A for competitive intelligence and partnership opportunities.

Actionable takeaways: Invest in AI/ML tools, diversify measurement frameworks, prioritize privacy-compliant ML models, explore alternative storefronts, and stay agile on market consolidation. Adjust offers solutions in measurement, fraud prevention, and deep linking to support these trends.