Is your channel mix resilient in an AI-disrupted world?

Summary

The article, based on Moloco/BCG research, argues that AI is fundamentally changing consumer behavior, forcing ad ops leaders to rethink channel strategy. Key data points: 80% of Google searches end without a click when AI overviews are present; nearly half of consumers use AI for product research; CPC in paid search is up 10-25% YoY, while affiliate revenues are down 7% YoY. Global digital ad spend splits into disrupted (35%) and stable (65%) supply.

Disrupted channels include traditional search, display, and affiliate—vulnerable to AI bypassing clicks. Stable channels like social, in-app ecosystems, and CTV hold deep user engagement. Nearly two-thirds of mobile time is spent in apps, with in-app purchases growing 21% YoY.

Marketers diversifying into independent app ecosystems see up to 116% higher Day 30 ROAS. CTV is also promising: 2/3 of CTV-driven installs happen within 6 hours of ad exposure. Actionable takeaways: diagnose your organic direct traffic share (target >51%) and disrupted channel spend (target <34%).

Rebalance mix toward stable channels. The 'status quo tax' manifests as eroding efficiency and rising CAC. The opportunity lies in investing in channels that thrive in a post-AI world, particularly mobile apps and CTV, where attention and conversions are concentrated.

Analyst Note

What's notable here is how the article quantifies the 'status quo tax' of relying on traditional digital channels like search and display. For ad ops teams, the key implication is that the erosion of these channels isn't hypothetical—CPC increases of 10-25% and affiliate revenue declines of 7% signal a structural shift, not a temporary blip. The data on zero-click searches (80%) and consumer willingness to use AI for product research (nearly half) underscores that the top of the funnel is being redefined.

The practical impact for UA managers is the need to reassess channel mix benchmarks: the industry averages of 51% organic direct traffic and 34% spend on disrupted channels are reference points, but teams should aim for a lower disrupted spend share. What's worth watching is the momentum behind mobile apps and CTV. The finding that marketers diversifying beyond Google and Meta saw 116% higher Day 30 ROAS highlights the independent app ecosystem as an underutilized growth lever.

Similarly, CTV's ability to drive installs within hours of ad exposure aligns with the shift toward engagement-based channels. For ad ops professionals, the challenge is operationalizing measurement across these fragmented ecosystems—attribution models need to account for cross-channel paths to conversion, especially as AI overviews alter search behavior. The timing of this article is relevant given ongoing privacy changes and AI adoption; it reinforces that channels with deep user engagement (apps, CTV) are better positioned to weather disruption.