What the holiday shopping season taught us about smarter signals for 2026

The article challenges conventional performance marketing metrics, arguing that high click-through rates and installs during the holiday season often failed to predict actual revenue. Many teams optimized for activity (clicks, in-app events) rather than intent, leading to campaigns that looked successful but didn't drive business outcomes. The core argument is that surface-level digital signals are insufficient for identifying high-value customers.

Instead, brands should leverage real purchase data, such as transaction-based signals, to build smarter audiences. AppsFlyer's Signal Hub offers a privacy-safe marketplace for anonymized spend data, allowing brands to enrich their first-party data without exposing raw information. For example, an entertainment brand used purchase signals to acquire subscribers with proven willingness to pay, improving ROAS.

A gaming publisher re-engaged high-value players by targeting those with recent app store purchases, boosting Day 7 ROAS. Actionable takeaways: (1) audit current campaign metrics to ensure they correlate with revenue; (2) integrate purchase signals for audience building; (3) activate across major ad platforms via AppsFlyer. The shift is from campaign optimization to business optimization, focusing on real spending behaviors to drive measurable outcomes.