AppsFlyerDriving ROI through a storm: 2023 app trends & C-level predictions
Summary
The article addresses how mobile marketers must adapt to a 'perfect storm' of economic downturn, privacy regulations (ATT, cookie deprecation), and post-pandemic normalization. Core arguments center on moving from growth-at-all-costs to profitability and retention. Experts emphasize: (1) Efficiency and cross-org alignment (Asif Rahman, AccuWeather); (2) Gaming remains resilient but hypercasual faces headwinds (Jeremy Bondy, Liftoff); (3) Privacy shifts require cohort-based marketing and SKAN 4.0 adoption; (4) Channel diversification (web-to-app, CTV, influencers) is critical; (5) CX and loyalty programs boost LTV (Raviteja Dodda, MoEngage).
Key data: $80B UA spend in 2022 (-5% YoY), 10% install growth, iOS installs up 16% despite ATT, non-gaming IAP revenue +20% vs gaming -16%. Actionable takeaways: create a single source of truth (SSOT), optimize ATT prompts (26% consent rate), invest in predictive LTV modeling, test CTV (20.6% click growth in 3 months), and leverage owned media (45% increase in iOS push).
Analyst Note
This article lands at a critical inflection point for mobile marketing teams: the convergence of post-COVID normalization, ATT-induced measurement fragmentation, and recessionary budget pressure. What's notable is how the narrative has shifted from growth-at-all-costs to efficiency and retention—a pivot that fundamentally changes UA strategy. For ad ops professionals, the key implication is that traditional LTV models and attribution windows are no longer reliable; the article reinforces that ROI must now be measured over six to twelve months, and that incrementality testing and MMM are becoming essential, not optional.
The data on ID matching rates rising to 26% of iOS NOIs suggests that ATT prompt optimization is finally yielding results, but the 20% drop in ad spend late in 2022 signals that budget holders are already acting on recession fears. Meanwhile, the emphasis on CTV and AI-driven personalization points to two channels where competitive advantage can still be carved out before they become saturated. For UA managers, the practical takeaway is that siloed, platform-specific strategies will fail—a single source of truth and cross-channel orchestration are now table stakes.
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